Mexican Reference Rate stays at 4.50%

but the odds have just increased that the next time the Board of Governors moves the rate, it will raise it. In the concluding paragraph of today's monetary policy communique, Banco de Mexico's Board explicitly stated that they will raise the rate, if necessary, to anchor inflationary expectations and stay on track to achieving 3% inflation.

The trigger for a rate increase: if "los choques a la inflacion" (like the ones we've experienced in recent months from agricultural prices) persist, even if they are temporary, and the downward trend in inflation isn't solid.