lunes, 27 de junio de 2011

Will the Fed put an end to monetary stimulus this year and what does it mean for Mexico?

The Mexican government doesn't think so, if the wording in the statement issued on June 23 by the Council on Financial Stability (CESF, comprised of Hacienda, Banco de Mexico, the CNBV, the Insurance Commission, the Consar and the IPAB -- in short, the financial regulators) is any guide. The CESF does not expect the Fed to "retire the monetary stimulus before the beginning of 2012".

The consequences are interesting: "therefore, the risk that capital flows to emerging markets will revert when US monetary policy is normalized has diminished. Nonetheless, risk persists due to the financing needs or renewed volatility caused by the fiscal problems of developed countries." In other words, we're not out of the woods yet.

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