domingo, 9 de septiembre de 2012

After the conventions...

US presidential candidates usually see a "post-convention bounce" in the polls. Following the Republican convention in Tampa, Governor Romney's percentage of the vote edged up 2-3 percentage points, less than usual post-convention bounce.

In contrast, the Democrats' convention in Charlotte produced a substantial uptick for President Obama. Extrapolating from the post-convention tracking polls two days after former President Clinton's masterful political speech suggests Obama's post-convention bounce may be 8 percentage points. (Tracking polls are done over a period of time. In the tracking polls available to date, only some of the people polled responded after the speech. Thus, the need for extrapolation.)

A clarification: I'm not editoralizing or passing judgment on the content of Clinton's speech. Immediately following the speech a Republican television commentator said he wished the Republicans had someone who could give a speech like that. Can't imagine a stronger endorsement of just how good a speech it was in terms of rallying the faithful and attracting voters.

It's electoral college votes that matter. Unfortunately, we don't know how much of a bounce each candidate got from voters in the states up for grabs. According to polling data, voters in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio and Wisconsin will decide the election.

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