Foreign direct investment will soar in 2012...

Foreign direct investment (FDI) just went through the roof. InBev's announcement that it will pay US$20.1 billion to assume control of Grupo Modelo could well put this year's FDI above the 2007 record of US$31.3 billion. No need to worry about 2012's capital account surplus -- unless portfolio investors were to abruptly liquidate their holdings of money market obligations.

Remember: although the US$20.1 billion InBev will pay Modelo's shareholders counts as FDI, it does not mean that money will swell the supply of dollars for sale in the exchange markets which, all other things being equal, would strengthen the peso. Watch for the effects of this transaction in the capital accounts in the balance of payments the rest of this year.